First Move

Run the business on numbers. Not on the bank balance.

What each customer actually earns you. What each product actually costs. What happens to your cash if you grow forty percent next year. Available for the length of a project, or on an ongoing basis.

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WHAT THIS USUALLY LOOKS LIKE

You only need one of these to be worth fixing

Revenue is growing. Margin isn’t.

Something is being carried by something else, and with overhead spread evenly across everything, nobody can see which.

Revenue is growing. Margin isn’t.

Something is being carried by something else, and with overhead spread evenly across everything, nobody can see which.

Cash decisions get made on the balance

You look at what’s in the account and decide. There’s no forecast to test the decision against before you commit to it.

Cash decisions get made on the balance

You look at what’s in the account and decide. There’s no forecast to test the decision against before you commit to it.

Pricing is set by feel or by competitor

Almost never by what the thing actually costs you to deliver, fully loaded.

Pricing is set by feel or by competitor

Almost never by what the thing actually costs you to deliver, fully loaded.

A lender or board question causes a scramble

The answer exists somewhere. Assembling it takes three days and the most senior person you have.

A lender or board question causes a scramble

The answer exists somewhere. Assembling it takes three days and the most senior person you have.

Nobody knows the cost to serve

So the customer who pays well but demands constant attention looks like your best account, and might be your worst.

Nobody knows the cost to serve

So the customer who pays well but demands constant attention looks like your best account, and might be your worst.

You can’t model what you’re about to commit to

A hire, a site, a line, a new market. The decision gets made on conviction because there’s nothing to run it through.

You can’t model what you’re about to commit to

A hire, a site, a line, a new market. The decision gets made on conviction because there’s nothing to run it through.

WHAT’S INCLUDED

Four parts — and together they answer what the accounts never will

The financial model

Driver-based model you can actually run scenarios through

Cash flow forecast with real sensitivities

Break-even and capacity analysis

Growth, downside and stress cases

The financial model

Driver-based model you can actually run scenarios through

Cash flow forecast with real sensitivities

Break-even and capacity analysis

Growth, downside and stress cases

Unit economics

True margin by product, service, site or customer

Fully loaded cost to serve — including the invisible costs

Pricing built from cost and value rather than from the market

Which customers and lines are carrying the business

Unit economics

True margin by product, service, site or customer

Fully loaded cost to serve — including the invisible costs

Pricing built from cost and value rather than from the market

Which customers and lines are carrying the business

Reporting that holds up

A board pack that answers the question before it’s asked

Lender and investor reporting

A KPI set small enough that people look at it

Monthly close that doesn’t consume the team

Reporting that holds up

A board pack that answers the question before it’s asked

Lender and investor reporting

A KPI set small enough that people look at it

Monthly close that doesn’t consume the team

CFO on retainer

Standing advisory time.

Pricing, capital and hiring decisions

Funding, refinancing and due diligence support

Someone senior in the room when it matters

CFO on retainer

Standing advisory time.

Pricing, capital and hiring decisions

Funding, refinancing and due diligence support

Someone senior in the room when it matters

The part nobody else does

How you’ll know it worked

This one proves itself differently, and it’s worth being straight about that. A model doesn’t save you hours in ninety days — it changes the quality of decisions, and decisions take longer than a quarter to show up.

So the test we hold ourselves to is accuracy. The model gets run against actuals every month. If it can’t predict your own business within a tolerance we agree upfront, it isn’t finished and we keep working on it.

A forecast nobody trusts is worse than no forecast at all, because it gets used anyway.

HOW IT RUNS

Six steps, and it doesn’t end at handover

Measure

Get the real numbers out of the systems, including the ones nobody has combined before.

Measure

Get the real numbers out of the systems, including the ones nobody has combined before.

Model

Build it around the handful of drivers that actually move your business.

Model

Build it around the handful of drivers that actually move your business.

Test

Run it backwards against last year. If it can’t explain the past it can’t forecast the future.

Test

Run it backwards against last year. If it can’t explain the past it can’t forecast the future.

Install

Reporting, cadence and a KPI set the team will genuinely use.

Install

Reporting, cadence and a KPI set the team will genuinely use.

Decide

Put the real decisions through it — pricing, hiring, capital, capacity.

Decide

Put the real decisions through it — pricing, hiring, capital, capacity.

Review

Monthly against actuals, corrected as the business changes.

Review

Monthly against actuals, corrected as the business changes.

Find out what’s actually carrying the business.

Most owners are surprised by at least one line. It’s better to be surprised in a model than in a bad year.

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